Super Tuesday: caucuses vs. primárias

Por João Jesus Caetano | Arquivado em Estados Unidos, Política 
6 Fevereiro, 2008, 16:24 |

Já aqui tinha referido que é necessário algum cuidado quando se comparam os resultados de processos eleitorais tão distintos como os caucuses e as primárias. Esta análise, retirada daqui, ilustra isso mesmo:

“The secret is in the asterisk. Notice the little asterisks in Obama’s top five states. An asterisk today denotes a caucus state. Obama did extremely well in caucus states and Clinton did very badly in them. How come? Turnout in caucus states is always low, usually about 10-20% of the electorate. Only highly motivated people bother to show up, especially the Democratic caucuses, which go on for hours and people have to publicly defend their choice. Obama has a smaller, but extremely active and loyal following, especially among younger voters. These are precisely the people who can swing a caucus state by showing up in droves and working hard to convince the other voters that Obama would make a great President. In primary states, the media, especially TV ads have a much bigger influence. Now it becomes clear why Obama won North Dakota but Clinton won Oklahoma, a demographically similar state in the same part of the country: North Dakota had a caucus and Oklahoma had a primary“.

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